One Chart to Rule Them All, One Chart to Find Them (Out)

One Chart to Rule Them All, One Chart to Find Them (Out): "

Look, if there is one simple chart which sums up everything that is
wrong with current thinking at the International Monetary Fund, then it
is this one.

Basically, I spent much of the day yesterday scratching my head,
trying to work out how the hell the IMF could be forecasting Spanish
GDP growth of 1.7% in 2012, of 1.9% in both 2013 and 2014 and 1.8% in
2015. And now it has dawned on me how and why they can. Quite simply
they are forecasting current account deficits for Spain of 5.3% of GDP
in 2010, 5.1% in 2011, 5.0% in 2012, 5.0 in 2013, 5.0% in 2014%, and
5.0% again in 2015. In other words, the assumption is that nothing
fundamental is going to change in the post 2008 world, when compared
with the years that preceded it. And this is clear when you come to look
at the whole structure of current account balances revealed in the
chart above, which are based on the IMF forcasts through 2015 as set out
in the April 2010 World Economic Outlook. It is a case of plus ça
change.

"